IRSA claims that if India halts the Indus Treaty, Pakistan may have a 21% water scarcity for the kharif season.

Pakistan is extremely concerned about India's intention to put the Indus Waters Treaty on hold. The advisory council of the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) voiced serious concerns on Monday over the abrupt decline in the Chenab River's inflow at Marala, which was ascribed to India's reduced water flows. Pakistan may experience a 21% water shortage in the early Kharif season as a result of this deficit.

On April 24, 2025, India formally canceled the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, claiming security concerns after the 26-person Pahalgam terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir. In an effort to claim its right to fully utilize water resources from western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab), India stopped exchanging data and notifying Pakistan about projects. Citing decreased Chenab River flows from India, Pakistan's Indus River System Authority (IRSA) issued a warning about a 21% water shortfall in the early Kharif season (May–June) and a 7% shortage in the late Kharif season (June–September).

At Marala headworks, the Chenab's inflow drastically decreased, endangering irrigation for crops vital to Pakistan's food security, such as rice, cotton, and maize. India's decreased releases from upstream dams, including as Baglihar and Salal, were blamed by IRSA for the shortfall. Due to decreased water supplies from India, Pakistan can experience a severe water deficit during the Kharif season.

The monsoon cropping season in South Asia, which normally lasts from June to October, is known as the Kharif season. This season's main crops, which are highly dependent on irrigation and rainfall, include cotton, rice, maize, and millet. "If River Chenab supplies continue to be typical, IAC announced a 21% total shortfall for the remainder Early Kharif Season. Nonetheless, the situation would be tracked every day, and the shortages would be reviewed appropriately if the decline in "River Chenab" persisted. "We anticipate a 7% Late Kharif Shortage," it continued.

The water scarcity is probably a result of India's decision to pause the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty after the Pahalgam incident, which was blamed on Pakistan's encouragement of transnational terrorism.